|Thursday July 17, 2008|
DialIdol had some problems with the first 20-30 minutes of last nights vote for the girls only. That data was not collected (the votes were still submitted to SYTYCD though). Also despite what the predictions page implies - there is NO definitive prediction. Comfort is NOT definitively predicted to be voted off. The reason it shows like that is because she never got a signal busy signal and her score is thus - zero. Margin of error thus calculates out to zero even though that clearly is not right. I'll fix this - maybe. :) The weather is just too darn nice in the summer!
The forums were hit by a spammer this weekend. They used some funky method to pretend to post as me - as best I can tell they were NOT me. Unfortunately the way they were doing it involved new user registration so to combat the spam I turned new user registration off. It will remain that way until I find some time to fix the problem.
|Thursday May 22, 2008|
DialIdol definitively predicted that David Cook would win American Idol - and he did - congratulations David Cook!
For the season DialIdol finishes with 30 correct predictions (noted by the smiley) and one wrong prediction (Kristy Lee Cook - noted by the frown) - a stunning 97% accuracy rate!
This has been DialIdol's most successful season and I personally enjoyed this season as much as I have since I've been doing DialIdol. I'd like to thank all of you who visit my little part of this tangled web we weave -without you there would be no DialIdol.com!
|Wednesday May 21, 2008|
Let's be clear - DialIdol is definitively predicting that David Cook will win American Idol. No ifs, ands or buts about it. No crazy margin of error claims or anything. The DialIdol scores are significantly different enough to wash all that out the window.
This comes as a bit of a surprise to me given that David Archuleta "knocked out" David Cook during the performance show so before you decide to skip the results show tonight you might want to consider that I myself will be watching with the usual uncertain anticipation that has become habit for me!
DialIdol.com got slammed pretty hard last night by lots of fans trying to see DialIdol's predictions. Page load time was in the neighborhood of 1-2 minutes from 9pm - 1am. Sorry about this. Sometimes it seems that it is easier to predict who will win American Idol than it is to predict how much traffic DialIdol will get. :)
|Thursday May 15, 2008|
Week w/3 (to 2) Idols Comments
Syesha Mercado was absolutely predicted to be voted off and she absolutely was so that counts as being accurate. That leaves us with the matchup of David Vs. David which is as interesting of a final to me as we have had since Carrie Vs. Bo from season four. All of this should make for a good show next Tuesday - and Wednesday!
|Thursday May 8, 2008|
Week w/4 (to 3) Idols Comments
Jason Castro was absolutely predicted to be voted off and he absolutely was so that counts as being accurate.
|Wednesday May 7, 2008|
Some thoughts about this weeks predictions.
First of all lets make one thing clear - Jason Castro is definitively predicted to be voted off tonight. No ifs ands or buts about it.
After last nights performance show it is a wonder to me how Jason Castro got any busy signals.
I didn't dive deep into analysis of the data this week because quite frankly it seems to make sense. Nonetheless I did notice that Jason did poorly during East coast voting and then improved during the West coast voting. It seems to me that if it were up to the West coast Jason would be sticking around another week.
Did you notice at the beginning of the show (right about when Jason yawned) Ryan noted that three of the four remaining contestants had finished number one in voting at least once during the season? I'm sure we can all agree that the Davids finished number one more than once or twice which leaves us to wonder whether Syesha or Jason was the other to finish first? If you ask me this just lends further proof that perhaps DialIdol was dead on accurate last week with Syesha getting the most votes! (You may think she was in the bottom two but in reality they never, ever said so!) Sure there were a few weeks that Jason did well on DialIdol - but I have a hard time believing he did better than David Archuleta during those weeks when David Archuleta's strength was more dominant than it is now.
|Thursday May 1, 2008|
Week w/5 (to 4) Idols Comments
Brooke White was predicted to be in danger of being voted off and she was so that counts as being accurate.
Ryan Seacrest never stated that Syesha Mercado and Brooke constituted the bottom two therefore the accuracy of Syesha's prediction cannot be measured (by me at least).
|Wednesday April 30, 2008|
Some thoughts about this weeks predictions.
I was surprised to see Syesha in the #1 slot. In analyzing the East/Central time zone data I found that her strength seemed balanced (not overly influenced by a few dialers) but it seemed David Cook had slightly more balanced strength. When you consider his West coast strength last night I do believe David Cook probably finished ahead of Syesha but none of the data suggests that either are in danger.
The East coast data also suggests Jason Castro did worse than the predictions imply. His West coast showing gave him the bump he needed to move out of last place but I have a feeling both Jason and Brooke are even closer than the final predictions imply.
David Archuleta - in danger? Huh? All of the data suggests it's that close but I wouldn't expect him to be going home. Considering that Syesha performed last, did well and the fact that Simon may have scared people into voting for her by saying she might be in danger right before the phone lines opened - I think that David being in danger was the biggest surprise but I have a feeling you all might think differently. :)
I did not get a chance to dive any deeper into the West coast data than looking at DIHardGraphs which indicate David Cook had more strength than Syesha and Jason Castro had more strength than Brooke White and all of them had (slightly) more strength than David Archuleta.
The phone lines acted weird at least once last night at about 9:23pm (Eastern) - everyone spiked to higher busy percentages than the pattern had been indicating.
|Thursday April 24, 2008|
Week w/6 (to 5) Idols Comments
As you know, there wasn't much of a prediction this week with David Cook being the only definitive prediction. Nevertheless, Carly, who sat at the bottom of DialIdol's predictions, was predicted to be in danger of being voted off - and she was, so DialIdol is back on track this week.
Or is it?
Again this week American Idol only decided to commit to a bottom two(/three) – never disclosing who actually got the fewest number of votes and instead stated “Carly you are leaving us tonight.” I personally think the 30 million viewers who watch every week deserve less ambiguity – but that's just me.
|Thursday April 17, 2008|
Week w/7 (to 6) Idols Comments
Kristy Lee Cook was absolutely predicted to be safe – she was sent home which was absolutely wrong.
I did find Ryan's “choice” of words to be somewhat interesting...
“After the nationwide vote the person staying with us is Brooke. Kristy Lee Cook leaves us tonight on American Idol.”
|Friday April 11, 2008|
Week w/8 (to 7) Idols Comments
Michael Johns was predicted to be in danger of being voted off and he was so that counts as being accurate.
Carly Smithson and Syesha Mercado were predicted to be in danger of being in the bottom three and were.
For those keeping score – Tivo and Zabasearch weren't any more accurate. Tivo predicted Syesha to be eliminated and she was not. ZabaSearch predicted a bottom three consisting of Carly, Brooke and Syesha – which was no more accurate than DialIdol. They also said no one would be sent home which was wrong. To top it off, ZabaSearch changed their prediction to reflect the results after they were announced.
Of course it wasn't DialIdol's brightest moment – but DialIdol wasn't wrong either. Who knows – with season highs in traffic for a Tuesday, maybe DialIdol visitors saved Carly and Syesha who flip-flopped for the bottom slot all night long?
|Thursday April 3, 2008|
Week w/10 (to 9) Idols Comments
Ramiele Malubay was predicted to be in danger of being voted off and she was so that counts as being accurate.
Kristy Lee Cook was predicted to be in the bottom three and she was.
Brooke White was predicted to be in the bottom three and she was, in fact she was four tenths of one percent away from being on one of the bottom three rows.
On a lighter note, I guess I was wrong about the two other “predictions” - they did not name a bottom, middle and top three as they usually do and they also sent someone home – contrary to my speculation. I guess this underscores why the busy signals make the predictions around here – not me.
|Wednesday April 2, 2008|
- Some observations from the data.
- Ramiele had the lowest busy percentage during 82% of the East coast voting window last night. In fact her East coast trend was so weak that at the end of East coast voting she was definitively predicted to be voted off. This is very telling and not a good sign for her at all.
- Ramiele got the same bump from the West coast this week that she got last week. Last week this bump seemed to keep her out of the bottom three - I don't know if it will keep her safe this week though.
- Contrary to last week - Jason Castro started strong and then tapered off and contrary to Ramiele - his West coast trend is quite weak.
- Only two tenths of a percent separate Jason, Kristy and Carly and only two tenths of a percent separate Carly from Brooke so the bottom three is going to be very close - just like last week.
- I'm merely speculating here and have nothing to base this on but with Idol Gives Back being next week and April fool's being yesterday, wouldn't it be a nifty little trick if no one was sent home tonight? This would be "shocking" which American Idol loves to be - and it would add drama to Idol Gives Back, which might lead to more viewers and thus more donations. One thing working against this is that last year on Idol Gives Back they sent no one home and I believe they explained 'that on a night like that - no one should go'. As usual, the only one way to know for sure is to - watch!
- On the other hand if Idol holds true to form we'll get a bottom, middle and top three tonight - the most detailed results we seem to get. Should be quite nerve wrecking, err, interesting - <gulp>. :)
- As far as Dancing with the Stars goes, no doubt about that one... Steve getting voted off was wrong. Quite frankly I think the problem is a lack of dialers (there were only like 10 people dialing) and as a result starting next week, for DWTS only, margin of error will apply in both directions instead of just one. Incidentally if I had that rule in place this week, Steve would have been in danger of being voted off.
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