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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  07:46:49 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Last night I was looking at the iTunes chart and noticed that the songs performed by the contestants were going up the charts - these are their chart positions this morning -

138. Coldplay - The Scientist (Jena Irene)
172. P!nk - Glitter In the Air (Emily Piriz)
252. Bruno Mars - Runaway Baby (Malaya Watson)
266. Shinedown - The Crow & the Butterfly (Jess Meuse)
288. Matchbox Twenty - Unwell (Sam Woolf)
312. Darius Rucker - Radio (CJ Harris)
349. Chris Young - Aw Naw (Dexter Roberts)
521. Jason Mraz - A Beautiful Mess (Alex Preston)
583. Janelle Mone - Tightrope (Majesty Rose)
813. Rival Sons - Pressure and Time (Caleb Johnson)

Not in chart -
Johnny Cash - Folsom Prison Blues (Ben Briley)
Kelly Clarkson - Beautiful Disaster (Kristen O'Connor)
Allen Stone - Satisfaction (MK Nobilette)

Songs by two of the bottom three aren't in the chart, but whether this can be used to indicate fan support I'm not sure, for example Malaya's song is quite high up. Also I'm surprise that Folsom Prison Blues isn't in the chart because I thought Ben Briley did a good job on that, and I would have thought Caleb Johnson's song would be higher up because it was an entertaining performance.

Still, it would be interesting to keep an eyes on this chart. We probably need to keep track of the chart positions before their performance since the songs might already be in the chart beforehand, and it would be the change in their positions before and after the performances that matters. It could serve as one of many indicators as to who made the biggest impression on the show now that DialIdol score no longer works (raw votes however is still useful). Individually they are probably not very accurate, but collectively they might tell us who is the most or least popular.

Roimeister

20538 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  10:43:47 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
very interesting...

in the past, Idol performance songs weren't released to iTunes early enough to use as a predictor, but I think we used them once in the past as an indicator of fan support... and it wasn't useful LOL

on The Voice, iTunes was a fairly good predictor in the early seasons, but last season, they were a PERFECT predictor!

as you noted, Malaya ranked MUCH higher on iTunes than she did in voting, but the other 2 in the B3 didn't chart at all... this is the type of "partially correct" predictions we were able to make for The Voice in the early seasons...

I'll be checking before and after the next performance show to see how soon they start charting, and will add them to our predictions "watch list" if they chart soon enough...

good find!
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Roimeister

20538 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  11:13:17 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
duh me!

I thought you meant the Idol performance of those songs was charting, not the original performance...

good luck with that...
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guitarman8484

USA
2514 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  11:28:13 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
That chart does give some weight to my theory about MK's song choice being one of the main reasons she was in the bottom 3. Other than that I don't really see it meaning a whole lot.
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Roimeister

20538 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  11:34:09 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by guitarman8484

That chart does give some weight to my theory about MK's song choice being one of the main reasons she was in the bottom 3. Other than that I don't really see it meaning a whole lot.



I have a theory that the name MK is very similar to the name MJ and that's why she didn't do well
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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  3:35:16 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by guitarman8484

That chart does give some weight to my theory about MK's song choice being one of the main reasons she was in the bottom 3. Other than that I don't really see it meaning a whole lot.


There seems to be a bit of hype around MK, but I'm not sure if her performances warrant it so far. Her song choice probably played a part, but it was one of the worst performances on the night, so I'm not surprise she was in the bottom 3.

There is actually quite a bit of evidence that performance on Idol do boost sales of song of the original artist, the most famous one being Jason Castro's performance of "Hallelujah". That performance pushed Jeff Buckley's version to #1 on iTunes (and also made the song very popular everywhere). If a song made an impression on the audience, then you can expect the song to sell.

It's hard to tell what is happening this week because I didn't take note of their chart positions before their performance, some songs should already be in the chart because they are still being played on radio (e.g. Darius Rucker's "Radio" and Chris Young's "Aw Naw"), but you can assume that many of the others wouldn't be on the chart now if they hadn't been performed on Idol. So, it does measure some kind of fans' response, whether you can correlate it to the relative popularity of contestants I'm not sure yet. We'll see what happens next week (if I remember to do it that is).


Edited by - lemondrops on 02/28/2014 3:38:38 PM
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Roimeister

20538 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  7:06:44 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
hey it's worth a try
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CallMeStella

9509 Posts

Posted - 02/28/2014 :  8:21:21 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by guitarman8484

That chart does give some weight to my theory about MK's song choice being one of the main reasons she was in the bottom 3. Other than that I don't really see it meaning a whole lot.



I agree with you, Gman. It's just a guess but i wouldn't think the average AI viewer is familiar with Allen Stone. I happen to know and like his music (although not all that well actually) because I am a blues/rock fan and he is a niche artist (meaning not so mainstream) more or less in the blues arena. I happen to like MK's style and music choice and I thought her performance was pretty good - much better than many of the others IMO, but I would say I'm not the average AI viewer, whatever that may be.

I wouldn't know a J-Lo song to save my life and I only know some of Keith's music. I bet many viewers haven't ever heard any of Harry's body of work either. Country, Pop and Rock to a lesser degree, some R&B/Soul are pretty mainstream for AI and its viewers and people like MK just don't fit into any of those boxes easily. There are a couple other contestants that are a little outside the box, too but none as far out as MK IMO.
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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 03/02/2014 :  08:51:39 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CallMeStella
It's just a guess but i wouldn't think the average AI viewer is familiar with Allen Stone. I happen to know and like his music (although not all that well actually) because I am a blues/rock fan and he is a niche artist (meaning not so mainstream) more or less in the blues arena.


I think whether someone is familiar or obscure won't make much difference on Idol. If people like the performance of a song, then people will vote for the contestant, and song by the original artist will go up in iTunes chart. Most Idol viewers won't have heard of Jeff Buckley before Jason Castro's performance, but his song still shot up to #1 after Castro performed it. The problem with MK's song is just that is simply isn't very good or memorable, and it wasn't performed well, so she ended in the bottom 3.
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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2014 :  06:26:26 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
iTunes chart positions the morning after. The numbers in parentheses are the chart positions ~an hour before the show.

#150 (425) Coldplay - Fix You (Majesty Rose)
#168 (---) Montgomery Gentry - Lucky Man (Dexter Roberts)
#179 (568) Train - Drops of Jupiter (MK Nobilette)
#184 (682) Tamela Mann - Take Me to the King (Malaya Watson)
#240 (---) Dido - White Flag (Jessica Meuse)
#337 (---) Gavin DeGraw - I Don't Want to Be (Alex Preston)
#571 (---) John Mayer - Waiting On the World to Change (CJ Harris)
#593 (---) Jennifer Lopez - Let's Get Loud (Emily Piriz)
#618 (---) Blind Pilot - Just One (Sam Woolf)

Not in chart -
Rush - Working Man (Caleb Johnson)
KT Tunstall - Suddenly I See (Jena Irene)
David Nail - Turning Home (Ben Briley)

Just a note to say that you cannot read the chart ranking in a straightforward manner for the following reasons -

1) The sales figures drop in an exponential manner, i.e. moving up 100 places from 200 to 100 probably represents greater sales than moving up 1,000 places from 1,500 to 500.

2) We don't know the ranking below 1,500. An obscure song like "Just One" probably had near zero sales before the show, while a better-known song like "Waiting On the World to Change" probably sells fairly constantly even if it doesn't appear on the chart. So even if the latter charted higher, it might have sold less.

3) A song that's already charting may also sell a bit more than an obscure song because of the familiarity factor - people are reminded of the song or know the song title/artist.

I don't know how much stock we can put in these numbers, but it seems to me Jena Irene might be in trouble. Last week Caleb's and Ben's performances didn't seem have to much impact on the sales of their songs, so it is hard to judge if they are likely to be in the bottom 3 or not. Maybe their fans simply aren't the kind to buy songs from iTunes (Caleb for example might be too old-fashioned to appeal to the younger generation).

I'll update the numbers with further observations later when the rankings should be higher.

Edited by - lemondrops on 03/06/2014 06:39:16 AM
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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 03/06/2014 :  3:56:01 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hmm, looks like some are already falling in the chart.

#157 (425) Coldplay - Fix You (Majesty Rose)
#161 (---) Montgomery Gentry - Lucky Man (Dexter Roberts)
#178 (682) Tamela Mann - Take Me to the King (Malaya Watson)
#184 (568) Train - Drops of Jupiter (MK Nobilette)
#262 (---) Dido - White Flag (Jessica Meuse)
#412 (---) Gavin DeGraw - I Don't Want to Be (Alex Preston)
#496 (---) Jennifer Lopez - Let's Get Loud (Emily Piriz)
#588 (---) Blind Pilot - Just One (Sam Woolf)
#660 (---) John Mayer - Waiting On the World to Change (CJ Harris)

Taking various factors into account, and assuming that there are no other reasons why the songs rose in the chart (e.g. use on other TV shows, adverts, etc.), this is probably how the contestants would rank based on iTunes sales -

Safe
1) Dexter Roberts (confirms that many think him the best of the night)
2) Majesty Rose (the pimp spot probably helped)
3) Malaya Watson
4) Jessica Meuse

Probably safe
5) MK Nobilette
6) Alex Preston
7) Emily Piriz
8) Sam Woolf (tempted to put in among those in danger, but it's probably not likely)

Probably in danger
9) CJ Harris
10) Caleb Johnson
11) Ben Briley
12) Jena Irene (didn't think she was that bad to deserve this)

This ranking doesn't seem likely to me, three boys (who performed reasonably OK) out of four in danger seems a bit odd. As mentioned before, perhaps Caleb and Ben's fans may not use iTunes much. Judging from the performance I would put MK Nobilette much further down. Personally I would also put Emily Piriz as one of those likely to be in the bottom 3.

If any of the top 4 here landed in the bottom 3, I would say the iTunes ranking probably doesn't work too well and would need some adjustment.

Will Jena get eliminated?

Edited by - lemondrops on 03/07/2014 09:44:11 AM
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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 03/07/2014 :  08:41:45 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Actually the ranking based on iTunes sales is not bad at all. I haven't seen any other sites that predicted Jena Irene would be in the bottom 3, so that is a positive. Some of those predicted to be in danger weren't, and as mentioned before, never likely to be true. The actual bottom 3, unlike the iTunes ranking, is not unreasonable - MK Nobilette performed poorly, and Emily Piriz had lowish ranking, the second worse of the girls based on iTunes sales.

The one thing that needs adjusting is the rankings for Caleb Johnson and Ben Briley. Two weeks in a row where they haven't appeared on the chart or were ranked low. They don't seem to inspire many people to go out and buy the songs they performed, even when they performed well, for example in the Top 13 week. Next week I'll factor that into account. Probably need to add a bit extra to the other boys as well.

Overall I'd say it's a good starting point for making predictions, you just need to factor a few other things in there.

Edited by - lemondrops on 03/07/2014 09:40:11 AM
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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 03/13/2014 :  07:54:56 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The analysis this week might be more complicated...

iTunes ranking of songs performed by Top 11 the morning after. Numbers in parentheses are the ranking before the show. Some songs have two different versions charting.

7 (8) 72 (76) Idina Menzel - Let It Go (Majesty Rose)
123 (----) 785 (----) The Marshall Tucker Band - Can't You See (CJ Harris)
169 (----) Paramore - Decode (Jena Irene)
188 (600) Adele - Skyfall (Caleb Johnson)
242 (772) Adele - Make You Feel My Love (MK Nobilette)
347 (----) Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova - Falling Slowly (Alex Preston)
360 (795) Lynyrd Skynyrd - Sweet Home Alabama (Dexter Roberts)
470 (----) Simon & Garfunkel - The Sound of Silence (Jess Meuse)
519 (----) Elton John - Bennie and the Jets (Ben Briley)
703 (1271) The Beatles - Come Together (Sam Woolf)

Not in chart -
Jennifer Hudson - I Am Changing (Malaya Watson)

At first glance, it would look like Malaya Watson and Sam Woolf are the lowest placed contestants, and CJ Harris the highest placed. It is hard to judge Majesty Rose's position because it is a currently high charting song, and any changes could be due to what's happening, or not happening, elsewhere (radio play and other promos etc.), or it may be just random fluctuation.

I'll check if there are any further significant changes later and do a fuller analysis.


Edited by - lemondrops on 03/13/2014 07:58:19 AM
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lemondrops

3333 Posts

Posted - 03/13/2014 :  12:17:33 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Updated rankings. Most numbers dropped, but it doesn't make a lot of difference as the changes lies within the range of error for this kind of analysis. The numbers first used is probably good enough.

6 (8) 67 (76) Idina Menzel - Let It Go (Majesty Rose)
129 (----) 880 (----) The Marshall Tucker Band - Can't You See (CJ Harris)
180 (----) Paramore - Decode (Jena Irene)
196 (600) Adele - Skyfall (Caleb Johnson)
253 (772) Adele - Make You Feel My Love (MK Nobilette)
388 (----) Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova - Falling Slowly (Alex Preston) also #856 for The Frames' version
401 (795) Lynyrd Skynyrd - Sweet Home Alabama (Dexter Roberts)
507 (----) Simon & Garfunkel - The Sound of Silence (Jess Meuse)
531 (----) Elton John - Bennie and the Jets (Ben Briley)
732 (1271) The Beatles - Come Together (Sam Woolf)

Not in chart -
Jennifer Hudson - I Am Changing (Malaya Watson)

Ranking of contestants according to estimated iTunes sales of songs -

1) CJ Harris
2) Jena Irene
3) Caleb Johnson
4) Alex Preston
5) MK Nobilette
6) Jess Meuse
7) Ben Briley
8) Dexter Roberts
9) Sam Woolf
? Majesty Rose
? Malaya Watson

As mentioned before, it is hard to quantify sales of Majesty Rose's song because it is currently charting very high, also the change is also small and song's ranking often fluctuate a bit, so you can't tell if the change is due to the impact of her performance. Also small change in the Top 10 can equal a change of over 500 in rank in lower part of the chart. But given that it was not a good performance, I would suspect she didn't affect the sales that strongly. Ranking Malaya Watson is also problematic because for all we know her song could have sold more than Sam Woolf's.

From the ranking above, I gave the guys an advantage by adding a bit extra to their score, and this is the final ranking that comes out -

Safe
1) CJ Harris
2) Jena Irene
3) Caleb Johnson

Probably safe
4) Alex Preston
5) MK Nobilette
6) Ben Briley

Probably in danger
7) Dexter Roberts
8) Jess Meuse
9) Majesty Rose
10) Sam Woolf
11) Malaya Watson

I would be quite upset if both Majesty and Sam landed in the bottom 3, but it looks to me Malaya is the one going home, unless there is some shenanigans going on with Pinoy voting.

Edited by - lemondrops on 03/13/2014 12:24:30 PM
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guitarman8484

USA
2514 Posts

Posted - 03/13/2014 :  7:06:07 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Is this seriously how you predict who's going home? Last week it had Emily completely safe and Caleb in the bottom 3. No way Malaya goes home tonight and no way is Ben not in the bottom 3.
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Roimeister

20538 Posts

Posted - 03/13/2014 :  7:28:57 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by guitarman8484

Is this seriously how you predict who's going home? Last week it had Emily completely safe and Caleb in the bottom 3. No way Malaya goes home tonight and no way is Ben not in the bottom 3.



"probably in danger" for 5 out of 11 contestants is sort of like DI predictions...

ETA: actually, it's worse than a DI prediction...

DI predictions are mechanical... they are what they are and there are no adjustments unless there's a glitch in the system...

manually adjusting scores like giving "the guys an advantage" or guessing on Majesty and Malaya turns it into a completely subjective prediction... not that there's anything wrong with that in itself... it's what we all do when we predict...

but then to add in the "probably in danger" for 5 out of 11 and claim some sort of methodical prediction or accuracy and precision?

Edited by - Roimeister on 03/13/2014 7:57:29 PM
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