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millergal
USA
281 Posts |
 Posted - 05/23/2012 : 2:54:17 PM
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For what it's worth...
http://www.zabasearch.com/american-idol-predictions/
In the hottest night of American Idol yet, Top 2 contestants Phillip Phillips and Jessica Sanchez wowed the audience with three songs that changed the Idol Nation forever and the question on everybody’s mind became: Could the 16 year old powerhouse from Chula Vista, California win it all and become the first female American Idol winner in five seasons. or would good looks and boyish charm continue the four season winning streak for the gents? We predict the answer is yes — Jessica Sanchez will be the next American Idol.
After Phillip Phillips won the coin toss and elected to perform second, Jessica opened the night of song with Simon Fuller’s pick, I Have Nothing by Whitney Houston. Duh. Whitney Houston. Jessica Sanchez. Enough said. Phillip responded with a Phillipsed version of Stand By Me, which had its charm, but probably not to the degree needed to edge out the winning team of Jitney (Jessica + Whitney). The judges agreed.
Round two begins, and this time the contestants bring back their favorite performances and Jessica delivers a sweetly angelic version of The Prayer followed by Phillip’s rendition of Movin’ Out by Billy Joel. Randy calls this one a “dead heat” while Steven and JLo take opposite sides — Steven’s vote goes to the lady (of course), while Jennifer gives round two to Phillip.
In the final round of the season, each contestant delivered a song that would be his or her first release upon winning the title. For the last time in competition, Jessica takes the stage with Change Nothing, and when she concludes, we find ourselves hoping that song changed nothing for Jessica because if it did, it was going to be in a bad way. The song itself was less than impressive and much of it called for the low register of Jessica’s voice, which we all know isn’t her strongest area. Unfortunately the whole thing came across as mediocre, and the judges let us know that they felt the same way, largely placing the blame on the song itself. With this we agreed, but we wondered if this unfortunate timing would erase an entire season of Jessica’s top notch performances and hard work?
In glaring contrast, the closing and most influential spot of the evening went to Phillip Phillips. With guitar in hand, Phillip delivered Home, a song that seemed custom-made for him, complete with panoramic camera views, marching band and all the extras. In one fell swoop, Phillip showed us how stars are made, and after the song had been sung, the microphones fell silent to music and opened to the voices of the nation to decide who would become the next American Idol.
After the show, we checked in with our friends at AfterBuzzTV for some post-Idol performance reviews. Some good points and analysis were made about how these performances could have impacted the final results and the bets were laid.
So where did these performances leave viewers? The cries for Jessica and the sobs for Phillip just became all that much louder and we heard you –all of you.
In fact, despite concerns of a significant international fan base, in this final phase of analysis, we extrapolated the data further to determine that the international component was not likely significant enough to impact Jessica’s overall popularity and the deciding vote. Our final analysis based on a multitude of Web-wide metrics that have been fed into the ZabaSearch predictive model,projects that tonight’s new American Idol winner will end the male-dominated winning streak.
ZABASEARCH PREDICTS THE AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 11 WINNER WILL BE:
JESSICA SANCHEZ |
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berniebernard
USA
204 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 3:24:21 PM
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| So, have they been accurate in the past? |
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CallMeStella
6216 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 3:35:26 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by berniebernard
So, have they been accurate in the past?
Good question!
I read the whole article and there was nothing in it that substantiated their prediction that Jessica would win, rather they sounded like they gave the edge to Phillip. That was strange to me. It would be interesting to see the details of their predictive model, and of course, we will see that many (if not all) factors used are subjective once again.
DI, while not predicting a winner (to close to call) does show Phillip with the greater amount of votes and higher than Jessica on the official prediction page. If Phillip wins, then I would say DI was accurate.
We shall find out tonight which entity was spot on. I'm hoping it's DI. 
I'm a redhead. Deal with it! |
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millergal
USA
281 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 3:48:09 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by berniebernard
So, have they been accurate in the past?
They correctly predicted David Cook (they originally predicted David Archuleta, then changed it around 3:00 p.m. CT to Cook with "Huge Upset!" headlines), Lee DeWyze and Scotty McCreery.
In 2009, however, they predicted Adam Lambert to win.
I didn't check it before 2009. |
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millergal
USA
281 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 3:58:02 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by CallMeStella
quote:
Originally posted by berniebernard
So, have they been accurate in the past?
Good question!
I read the whole article and there was nothing in it that substantiated their prediction that Jessica would win, rather they sounded like they gave the edge to Phillip. That was strange to me. It would be interesting to see the details of their predictive model, and of course, we will see that many (if not all) factors used are subjective once again.
DI, while not predicting a winner (to close to call) does show Phillip with the greater amount of votes and higher than Jessica on the official prediction page. If Phillip wins, then I would say DI was accurate.
We shall find out tonight which entity was spot on. I'm hoping it's DI.
I'm a redhead. Deal with it!
Stella, the article only briefly referenced their predictive model; following is more information; but I agree, it's all fairly subjective (remember Colton had high social media scores before his elimination).
Using a proprietary ‘Prediction Engine,’ we hope to accurately predict the outcome of the 11th season of American Idol. Check back here each week, as we post new information and predictions about the remaining contestants, including who will be eliminated each week.
To make these predictions, we calculate a ZScore index number for each contestant, using statistical analysis along with a complex proprietary algorithm and data derived from Zabasearch’s American Idol Social Media Scorecard, among other data. The ZScore provides a relative ranking of each contestant; the lower the ZScore value is, the more likely the contestant is to be eliminated during the subject week. High ZScore values reflect a greater likelihood of remaining in the contest for the week under examination.
American Idol fans, be sure to visit us here over the next several weeks, as we announce our picks for contestants moving on to the next round and those who will be eliminated. In addition to making contestant predictions, we have created a place where fans can leave messages for their favorite contestants or judges, search for more information about the contestants, as well as check out our American Idol blog for the inside scoop on the show.
And the battle rages on in this final week of Season 11 as the remaining two contestants take the stage tonight to compete for the title of American Idol! Both contestants have consistently ranked at the top of fan polls throughout the season, and their fan counts echo their ever-growing popularity. In this week’s American Idol Social Media Scorecard, we take a look at the 6-day change from last week’s pre-performance tally to find that social media buzz surrounding 16 year-old Jessica Sanchez has picked up pace in this final week as she breaks away even further from every girl’s dream, Phillip Phillips, in Twitter, Facebook and combined fan count.
A closer examination of these platforms show the detail of the trends. Most interesting to note is that since last week, both contestants have seen an increase in fan growth rate as fans of previously eliminated contestants choose sides and as more viewers tune into the last two weeks of competition. Jessica’s fan base has grown at a faster rate than Phillip, by 25.8% in Twitter followers and 23.7% in Facebook likes to yield a total overall fan growth rate of 25.0%. In comparison, Phillip’s fan base grew overall by 14.3% due, this comprised of a 13.7% growth in Twitter followers and a 15.4% growth in Facebook fans. This week’s analysis is particularly interesting since last week’s data was inconsistent — Phillip’s Facebook likes grew by over 100,000 fans during the week, but that is hypothesized to be due to a possible merge of two Facebook fan pages.[/font=Book Antiqua]
There is a graph showing their Facebook and Twitter fanbases here:
http://www.zabasearch.com/american-idol-predictions/american-idol-social-media-scorecard-top-2-battle-for-american-idol/ |
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user name
62 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 4:07:02 PM
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| I don't get how this is worth mentioning. It's just some random guy with no more credibility than any of us predicting Jessica to win. |
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Roimeister
14132 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 4:11:21 PM
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they say they use a proprietary social media model... yea.. sounds like my Boring Data model.. and we all know how accurate that's been...
they "hard" predicted P2 going home when Skylar went home...
usually their predictions are "soft"... similar to DI's predictions of "these three are in the danger zone"...
and yes, they change their predictions...
they have predicted correctly some times in the distant past... but.. even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while...
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steakdinner
19 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 4:16:35 PM
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| they've predicted every season correctly with the exception of adam lambert/kris allen |
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carriedaway
296 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 4:24:50 PM
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| They'll change it to Phillip shortly (or after the result ) |
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user name
62 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 4:33:41 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by steakdinner
they've predicted every season correctly with the exception of adam lambert/kris allen
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And that gives them credibility? Every season except Lambert/Allen has been extremely obvious. In fact, who is to say they aren't going by Dialidol? |
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Roimeister
14132 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 4:35:37 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by steakdinner
they've predicted every season correctly with the exception of adam lambert/kris allen
DI has correctly predicted every season it's been around... including the Kris/Adam season... although that season and this season (and the Carrie/Bo season), DI predicts "too close to call" but the lowest score still lost...
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millergal
USA
281 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 4:56:47 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Roimeister
quote:
Originally posted by steakdinner
they've predicted every season correctly with the exception of adam lambert/kris allen
DI has correctly predicted every season it's been around... including the Kris/Adam season... although that season and this season (and the Carrie/Bo season), DI predicts "too close to call" but the lowest score still lost...
Yep...so although I wouldn't be upset at all if Jessica won, I believe Phillip will win. |
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Roimeister
14132 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2012 : 10:30:27 PM
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| Zaba dabba dooooo... |
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