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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
 Posted - 03/16/2012 : 11:09:24 PM
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Did one of these last year and I figured I'd do this again this year. Each week I'll predict how I think the voting went down using in-depth DI data and other stuff that can be an indicator (WhatNotToSing, polls,etc.) I'll post my comments (in particular those concerning DI and it's accuracy) and to make it a bit more "discussion friendly" than last years, I'll post my opinions on them-more so why I think American voted the way they did, and in some cases, make predictions for the coming week. I'll update each week and I may go back and change them some as we get further into the season. For the top 13 I'll do them combined instead of guys and girls since that one's pretty obvious.
Top 13
1.Jessica Sanchez
2.Hollie Cavanagh
3.Phillip Phillips
4.Colton Dixon
5.Skylar Laine
6.Heejun Han
7.DeAndre Brackensick
8.Joshua Ledet
9.Erika Van Pelt
10.Shannon Magrane
11.Elise Testone
12.Jermaine Jones
13.Jeremy Rosado
Yes I know the judges chose to send home Jeremy but considering he was a wild card and towards the bottom bracket of the top 12 guys to begin with if his numbers for that week are any indication, he was screwed to begin with.
Do #s 9-11 look familiar to anyone?
Nothing strange or extraordinary from DI this week. I was a bit surprised to see Joshua in the bottom as he had a relatively high # of busies, but when I looked at the DIHardGraphs I noticed most of them were in the 2nd hour of voting, which is far less important than the first.
Skylar and Colton could be switched around, especially when you consider that Skylar had 3 country contestants she could've gotten voters from. Phillip and Hollie may also be backwards, but I doubt it.
Top 11
1.Joshua Ledet
2.Phillip Phillips
3.Hollie Cavanagh
4.Jessica Sanchez
5.Skylar Laine
6.Colton Dixon
7.DeAndre Brackensick
8.Heejun Han
9.Elise Testone
10.Erika Van Pelt
11.Shannon Magrane
The bottom 3 for this week, agree or not, really shouldn't have surprised anyone. It's simple logic, 2 males leave, a female is more likely to get booted. I was quite surprised when DeAndre made it without being in the bottom 3, but as soon as he was saved I knew Heejun would be because of that. I definitely think we will see one or both of them in the bottom 3 this week.
Multiple people on IDF think Elise is the new Haley(bottom 3 all the time early on, ends up improving considerably and eliminating multiple early frontrunners). I do not agree at all. The reasons are simple, Haley's younger and better looking, and didn't really show much "attitude" until later on, and that was because of the deliberate beating the judges were giving her towards the end. Elise showed it right away, and it was only after 1 performance.
Nothing strange about the results. Skylar and Colton could be backwards again, but I doubt it-especially when you factor in Colton's totally obscure song choice. Never underestimate the power of country voters! (Thank God for em this year!)
One general observation about both weeks: Jessica seems to be getting less busy signals than Phillip and Hollie. Does she get a lot of text and online votes, or is she not as popular as we think? I put her #1 for top 13 because "I Will Always Love You" was so popular, but I wonder if she could be this year's shock boot?(maybe not until top 3 a la Melinda) I'm thinking it'll be Hollie, Colton or Joshua if not her.
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UVSinger
USA
9328 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 11:43:52 PM
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Wow, you actually ranked them the same way I've been thinking for the last few weeks, basically (minus Joshua being #1.... he WAS the best this week but will not go that far, IMHO). I didn't think we had agreed that much but maybe it was because in your performance reviews thread, you rank Deandre and Heejun low more often than CHERika and Elise.
Considering you just posted this today, I have to ask ... did you really predict that bottom three? If so, right on! |
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Roimeister
14181 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 11:59:07 PM
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last year... when he said "prediction" it wasn't a prediction at all.. since it's after the fact... but rather his "post-diction" explanation for why he thinks the B3 were the B3 and why everyone else might have been ranked the way he thinks they were...
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Edited by - Roimeister on 03/17/2012 12:03:14 AM |
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UVSinger
USA
9328 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2012 : 12:09:05 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Roimeister
last year... when he said "prediction" it wasn't a prediction at all.. since it's after the fact... but rather his "post-diction" explanation for why he thinks the B3 were the B3 and why everyone else might have been ranked the way he thinks they were...
I gotcha, I am tired and mis-read. :) |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2012 : 12:12:29 AM
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No actually, I knew that any 1 of those 3 would make it but I was convinced DeAndre or Heejun would make it, but as soon as DeAndre was safe I knew Hee Jun was. The 2 E's are definitely in danger again next week, especially when you factor in that Shannon's fans are more likely to vote for one of the younger girls. Erika in particular .
Speaking of which, I just looked at the comments on AI's most recent FB post, and noticed a lot more people had Hollie and Skylar as their favs (or among their faves) than Jessica. Small sample but I still wonder if Jessica will go as far some people think |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 11:20:25 AM
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After seeing this mentioned in a thread on IDF, I thought of something to include in future predictions that I forgot to mention earlier: the call out order on the results show. It has been speculated for awhile that this is either the order of, close to or form some kind of pattern related to the actual voting results.
While these rankings are not really that relevant at this point, here's the order for top 24. Thank God MJ archives her stuff. The contestants were split up into these groups:
Guys:
Jeremy Rosado, Chase Likens, Phillip Phillips.
Joshua Ledet, Heejun Han, Adam Brock.
Reed Grimm, Creighton Fraker, Aaron Marcellus.
Colton Dixon, DeAndre Brackensick, Eben Franckewitz, Jermaine Jones.
Girls:
Jessica Sanchez, Hollie Cavanagh, Brielle Von Hugel, Hallie Day
Shannon Magrane, Skylar Laine, Chelsea Sorrell, Baylie Brown
Haley Johnsen, Erika Van Pelt, Jen Hirsh, Elise Testone
With that in mind, I would predict the rankings to be something like this:
Guys
1.Phillip Phillips
2.Joshua Ledet
3.Heejun Han
4.Colton Dixon
5.Jermaine Jones
6.Eben Franckewitz (VFTW pick, late spot in the show, popular with teen girls)
7.DeAndre Brackensick
8.Reed Grimm
9.Creighton Fraker
10.Aaron Marcellus
11.Adam Brock
12.Chase Likens
13.Jeremy Rosado
Girls
1.Jessica Sanchez
2.Hollie Cavanagh
3.Skylar Laine
4.Shannon Magrane
5.Elise Testone
6.Jen Hirsh
7.Erika Van Pelt
8.Haley Johnsen (VFTW pick, late spot in the show)
9.Baylie Brown
10.Chelsea Sorrell
11.Hallie Day
12.Brielle Von Hugel
They sent Shannon to safety before Skylar but I think they switched it around for the show to have all the country girls together. Anyway, if that were the actual order of voting results please tell me you see the pattern: top vote getters from each group in descending order, bottom vote getters from each in ascending order. With the exception of Joshua (who sang first the next week), this appears to be pretty close to the following week's results.
I could do the next 2 later, but that should be enough to see what I mean. I won't use it as the sole method for predicting, just one thing I'll base them on because we'll never know for certain. |
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Roimeister
14181 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 11:28:29 AM
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| maybe I'm missing something... are you saying that the call out order for last week can be used to predict who is going home this week? |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 1:31:54 PM
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| No, I'm saying it can be used to predict the results for the previous week, and the results from the previous week can be used to predict the results from the next week |
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Roimeister
14181 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 3:19:22 PM
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ok... I thought I understood you with your first clause... but then the second one confused me even more...
now it sounds like the call out order from this week can be used to predict the results from last week... and the results from last week can be used to predict the results this week...
maybe I'm just hung up on using the word "predict" for something that's already happened in the past, but even with that, I'm still confused |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 3:50:21 PM
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This really is more of a post-diction if you will. Basically, I'm trying to guess the actual voting results after they've happened, but the only way to do that is to watch the results show first.
With that in mind, basically I could watch the results show and guess that since Joshua was the first sent to safety and Heejun last,that Joshua was the top vote getter and Heejun the person just above the b3. What got me thinking about this was someone on IDF who said in a general thread that they think Joshua, Phillip and Skylar were top 3 vote getters this past week since they were the first 3 safe. We will never know, but that just so happens to be my top 3 so that's awesome if true!
The main purpose of this honestly is because ever since I first discovered DI I've always wondered where the contestants actually place in voting besides those that we know are in the bottom 3 and this is a way of guessing that.Nigel has said that Carrie Underwood won every week in the votes and lo and behold, the whole season. This is a way of guessing who could be in that position, who's in danger of leaving soon, and who's fan base could be unstable-ones who vary from week to week ie Haley Reinhart, Allison Iraheta.
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Edited by - guitarman8484 on 03/19/2012 4:07:09 PM |
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Roimeister
14181 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 4:28:58 PM
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ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
so what you mean is.. the call out order from last week can be used to predict who is actually winning... since we never know who the "top 3" is.. just the bottom 3 ? |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 4:48:41 PM
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| In a nutshell, yes. Again, we will never know exactly how they do it. What I'll do when I come up with these lists is start by using DI and then change it around based on the call out order. |
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Roimeister
14181 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 5:02:22 PM
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| so that would mean... based on this.. HeeJun should be B3 this week? |
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UVSinger
USA
9328 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 7:50:05 PM
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I can understand this thought process here but completely disagree. There is no way in my mind that Joshua had the most votes even with a great performance. I would really have to see the actual results to believe that.
Also, Ryan sometimes says that the order he is calling them safe is in no particular order. |
Edited by - UVSinger on 03/19/2012 7:50:36 PM |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 7:50:37 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Roimeister
so that would mean... based on this.. HeeJun should be B3 this week?
Strong chance he will, yes. I probably would have had Haley Reinhart in roughly the same spot this time last year and look what happened, so anyone can turn it around for themselves. |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2012 : 7:54:47 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by UVSinger
I can understand this thought process here but completely disagree. There is no way in my mind that Joshua had the most votes even with a great performance. I would really have to see the actual results to believe that.
Also, Ryan sometimes says that the order he is calling them safe is in no particular order.
He could be half the time, but since there are some patterns I've noticed about the call out order-once I saw that comment on IDF I looked back and some archived stuff on MJ's from last year, they will be taken into account for these rankings.
As far as Joshua, yes I believe he was the top vote getter. I have a feeling most Jermaine fans likely would switch to him, and that since his performance was so good, he probably got a lot of votes from casual voters who vote on performances and people who split their votes. Since he had a stronger fan base going in than Elise, Erika or Shannon, his fans were probably more motivated to vote after his b3 appearance than theirs. I don't know if he'll keep it up, but yes I believe he was #1 for this week. |
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