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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
 Posted - 03/11/2012 : 7:25:01 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by CallMeStella
quote:
Originally posted by Roimeister
yea I remember that from last year... I don't remember why I didn't add it to my rankings, but it could possibly be because it's not an absolute...
and what I mean by that is... it's debatable to me whether or not 25 ratings of 5 stars is a higher rating than 54 ratings of 4.5 stars... simple math says it's not... fuzzy math says it is...
and I'm just simply fuzzy...
Do the number of ratings correspond in any way to the number of iTunes sold for any contestant? I would think that not every who buys a song takes the time to give it a rating, or do they? Can you even find out how many of any of the songs were sold? If so, maybe you can come up with some super duper fancy shmancy formula to determine another interesting albeit most likely meaningless way to rank the group (That's truly not a dig, just facing reality  ).
Can you only buy the current songs from any particular week or are they always for sale throughout the season? That could make a difference, too, maybe in the area of trending. You know, if someone is slower to pick a favorite, they might go back and buy all that person's songs and if that person (or any of them) start selling more in general, then that person or persons are becoming more popular and moving up in the rankings. I have no idea how that could be tracked and evaluated but just throwing it out there.
great stuff, Stella!
I believe you cannot find out the sales figures prior to the end of the season... I may be wrong, but it seems I remember that from when iTunes first started...
but if you could... well... all the trending you mentioned wouldn't be all that difficult to track...
"most likely meaningless" is most likely true... there isn't a pure prediction model that works 100% of the time... that's probably why I, and others, keep trying to figure one out LOLOL
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UVSinger
USA
9309 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2012 : 6:31:19 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by guitarman8484
Not sure if this warranted it's own thread so I figured I'd post it here. Although we are never given iTunes sales rankings during the season, I figured out a method last season for gauging popularity using iTunes. I didn't keep up with it enough to see how accurate was so we'll try again this season.
Basically I'm gonna rank them by ratings- a contestant with a 5 star average ranks higher than one with a 4 star average, and more ratings equal higher ranking.
1.Jessica-5 stars-229 ratings
2.Phillip-5 stars-147 ratings
3.Colton-5 stars-90 ratings
4.Hollie-5 stars-59 ratings
5.Skylar-5 stars-55 ratings
6.Elise-5 stars-32 ratings
7.Joshua-5 stars-25 ratings
8.DeAndre-4.5 stars-54 ratings
9.Shannon-4.5 stars-48 ratings
10.Hee Jun-4.5 stars-46 ratings
11.Erika-4.5 stars-24 ratings
12.Jermaine-3 stars-14 ratings
I would think the fewer ratings mean less people are checking out that person, meaning less popularity. Of course, this is just my opinion and not based on fact.
If you do it THAT way, then we are closer to what I feel the rankings will wind up being (and what closely resembles the numbers Roi came up with using FB, Twitter and DI):
1.Jessica-5 stars-229 ratings
2.Phillip-5 stars-147 ratings
3.Colton-5 stars-90 ratings
4.Hollie-5 stars-59 ratings
5.Skylar-5 stars-55 ratings
6.DeAndre-4.5 stars-54 ratings
7.Shannon-4.5 stars-48 ratings
8.Hee Jun-4.5 stars-46 ratings
9.Elise-5 stars-32 ratings
10.Joshua-5 stars-25 ratings
11.Erika-4.5 stars-24 ratings
12.Jermaine-3 stars-14 ratings
Once again, bottom 4 (and the next 4 to leave in my opinion, but not necessarily in this order) = Jermaine, Erika, Elise and Joshua
Throw in the next three which is a crap shoot, but I think Hee Jun will last a wee bit long than DeAndre and Shannon...
And then you have your top 5, which really is how it's shaping up in popularity all over the net: Jessica, Phillip, Colton, Skylar and Hollie.... with the top 3 being Jessica, Phillip and Colton.
Skylar and Hollie duking it out for 4th and 5th, beware of DeAndre who will get some votes for being the cute guy and Hee Jun who is endearing.... those two will be around 6th and 7th.
Shannon is more popular than the "old ladies" as Erika called them,
so she will finish slightly above them, and Jermaine and Joshua will go home anytime between now and 8th place.
Do you all at least agree on the top 5:
1 - 3: Jess, PP and Colton
4 - 5: Hollie and Skylar?
I know some of you like Joshua, Erika and Elise, whereas some of you don't like Hee Jun and DeAndre and I do... and Shannon is in the middle of the mix, so...
pretty much
6 - 11: (in some order) Hee Jun, DeAndre, Shannon, Joshua, Erika, Elise
and probably going home next:
12. Jermaine
I don't know, Elise and Erika may get lower votes than Jermaine...
anything is possible, but I think the top 5 are pretty clear so far. No?
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Edited by - UVSinger on 03/12/2012 6:33:36 PM |
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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
Posted - 03/12/2012 : 6:53:46 PM
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even though I haven't made my rankings, I would probably agree those would be my favorite 5... I'm just not sure what order to put them in... since last week was pretty much the first time I've seen any of them, I just haven't developed a sense of who I really like...
I will say that Jess stood out for me last week, but I might not like her this week
BUT... it wouldn't surprise me if one of those 5 went home before making top 5
the voters are always surprising... |
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UVSinger
USA
9309 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 02:33:14 AM
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| Any updates?? |
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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 02:45:34 AM
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not yet... the voting hasn't ended yet....
and I usually wait until the morning to gather the other data... that gives people time to get to work or school, discuss the show, then LIKE or follow... |
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RockCity
USA
15801 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 03:51:05 AM
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This data is sometimes boring.  |
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UVSinger
USA
9309 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 04:50:28 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by RockCity
This data is sometimes boring.
I like boring!
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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 11:07:26 AM
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for FB... we had a 41% increase in the number of "likes" and once again, Jessica saw HUGE gains... taking over the top spot... Joshua also had large gain... but there were no other position changes
FB % FB % % Rank
"votes" of "votes" of increase last
Contestant 3/8 Total 3/15 Total in "votes" week
Jessica Sanchez 22495 13.96% 43214 19.47% 92.10% 2
Colton Dixon 27008 16.76% 36067 16.25% 33.54% 1
Hee Jun Han 20814 12.92% 26215 11.81% 25.95% 3
Phillip 18555 11.51% 23508 10.59% 26.69% 4
DeAndre 13190 8.18% 18594 8.38% 40.97% 5
Skylar Laine 12837 7.97% 17422 7.85% 35.72% 6
Hollie Cavanagh 10253 6.36% 14464 6.52% 41.07% 7
Joshua Ledet 8915 5.53% 13836 6.24% 55.20% 8
Elise Testone 8035 4.99% 9792 4.41% 21.87% 9
Shannon Magrane 7961 4.94% 9604 4.33% 20.64% 10
Erika Van Pelt 7187 4.46% 9183 4.14% 27.77% 12
157,250 221,899 41.11%
for Twitter... a 42% increase in followers... Elise having a huge percentage increase to climb out of the bottom, but only a couple of position changes... most noticeable is EVP's puny increase... which reflects her artificially inflated numbers to start the season with... in fact, if we pull out the estimated "20,000", she actually drops to the bottom of the list
Twitter % Twitter % % Rank
"votes" of "votes" of increase last
Contestant 3/8 Total 3/15 Total in "votes" week
Hee Jun Han 53535 18.38% 73284 17.92% 36.89% 1
Phillip 46921 16.11% 68236 16.69% 45.43% 2
Colton Dixon 44699 15.35% 63079 15.43% 41.12% 3
Jessica Sanchez 28737 9.87% 46883 11.47% 63.15% 5
Erika Van Pelt 32163 11.05% 35732 8.74% 11.10% 4
DeAndre 16994 5.84% 24567 6.01% 44.56% 7
Skylar Laine 17171 5.90% 24377 5.96% 41.97% 6
Hollie Cavanagh 14511 4.98% 21787 5.33% 50.14% 8
Shannon Magrane 13871 4.76% 18062 4.42% 30.21% 9
Elise Testone 8325 2.86% 16794 4.11% 101.73% 12
Joshua Ledet 9817 3.37% 16093 3.94% 63.93% 11
286,744 408,894 42.60%
for actual DI votes... overall numbers were UP 15%... with DeAndre and HeeJun seeing HUGE increases, while EVP lost the largest percentage, which reflects my thoughts that her votes were stacked last week...
these changes in rankings are all over the place, but since the DI votes are the only category used in the poll that actually go down, it's likely to fluctuate most of the season
DI % DI % % Rank
"votes" of "votes" of increase last
Contestant 3/8 Total 3/15 Total in "votes" week
Jessica Sanchez 4203 12.51% 5284 14.14% 25.72% 2
Colton Dixon 4200 12.51% 4545 12.16% 8.21% 3
Phillip 3995 11.90% 4059 10.86% 1.60% 4
Hollie Cavanagh 3748 11.16% 4037 10.80% 7.71% 5
Erika Van Pelt 5144 15.32% 3765 10.08% -26.81% 1
DeAndre 1466 4.37% 3460 9.26% 136.02% 10
Hee Jun Han 1362 4.06% 3424 9.16% 151.40% 11
Skylar Laine 2587 7.70% 2503 6.70% -3.25% 6
Joshua Ledet 2343 6.98% 2448 6.55% 4.48% 7
Elise Testone 1709 5.09% 2107 5.64% 23.29% 8
Shannon Magrane 1524 4.54% 1733 4.64% 13.71% 9
32,281 37,365 15.75%
overall... Jessica had the largest gain and jumped from 3rd place to take the lead, while EVP had the largest decrease...
Rank
Average Average Last
Contestant 3/8 3/15 Change Week
Jessica Sanchez 12.11% 15.03% 2.91% 3
Colton Dixon 14.87% 14.61% -0.26% 1
Hee Jun Han 11.79% 12.97% 1.18% 4
Phillip 13.17% 12.72% -0.46% 2
DeAndre 6.13% 7.88% 1.75% 8
Erika Van Pelt 10.27% 7.65% -2.62% 5
Hollie Cavanagh 7.50% 7.55% 0.05% 6
Skylar Laine 7.19% 6.84% -0.35% 7
Joshua Ledet 5.29% 5.57% 0.28% 9
Elise Testone 4.31% 4.72% 0.41% 11
Shannon Magrane 4.75% 4.46% -0.29% 10
the prediction is... bye bye Shannon... but Elise could beat her to the exit |
Edited by - Roimeister on 03/15/2012 1:22:00 PM |
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UVSinger
USA
9309 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 4:14:26 PM
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I think the only thing keeping Erika up are those 20,000 fake twitter number of people who are NOT even fans of hers.
I bet if you take those out she is very bottom or bottom 2.
I predict Shanon, Elise and Erika for bottom 3 with EVP leaving. |
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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 5:32:39 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by UVSinger
I think the only thing keeping Erika up are those 20,000 fake twitter number of people who are NOT even fans of hers.
I bet if you take those out she is very bottom or bottom 2.
I predict Shanon, Elise and Erika for bottom 3 with EVP leaving.
strangely enough, if I pull out the 20k for EVP, she drops to the bottom of twitter, but only drops to 4th from the bottom overall...
her DI votes weren't #1 this week like last week, but they were high enough to keep her off the floor overall
I guess the other thing that surprises me is Joshua's low numbers overall... he's ok on FB, but Twitter and DI votes are really dragging his rank down... on the DI Experts Poll, he's a solid #4 |
Edited by - Roimeister on 03/15/2012 5:51:03 PM |
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guitarman8484
USA
1060 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 6:15:01 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Roimeister
quote:
Originally posted by UVSinger
I think the only thing keeping Erika up are those 20,000 fake twitter number of people who are NOT even fans of hers.
I bet if you take those out she is very bottom or bottom 2.
I predict Shanon, Elise and Erika for bottom 3 with EVP leaving.
strangely enough, if I pull out the 20k for EVP, she drops to the bottom of twitter, but only drops to 4th from the bottom overall...
her DI votes weren't #1 this week like last week, but they were high enough to keep her off the floor overall
I guess the other thing that surprises me is Joshua's low numbers overall... he's ok on FB, but Twitter and DI votes are really dragging his rank down... on the DI Experts Poll, he's a solid #4
Black contestants have never had much of an online following for some reason. While none of the individual contestant forums are particularly active this year, his is easily the most dead of the ones left (not counting Jermaine). Jacob last year and Big Mike Lynche never had that kind of following either. |
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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2012 : 9:35:14 PM
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so how did we do here?
Facebook correctly predicted the bottom 3... just not in the correct order...
FB % FB % % Rank
"votes" of "votes" of increase last
Contestant 3/8 Total 3/15 Total in "votes" week
Jessica Sanchez 22495 13.96% 43214 19.47% 92.10% 2
Colton Dixon 27008 16.76% 36067 16.25% 33.54% 1
Hee Jun Han 20814 12.92% 26215 11.81% 25.95% 3
Phillip 18555 11.51% 23508 10.59% 26.69% 4
DeAndre 13190 8.18% 18594 8.38% 40.97% 5
Skylar Laine 12837 7.97% 17422 7.85% 35.72% 6
Hollie Cavanagh 10253 6.36% 14464 6.52% 41.07% 7
Joshua Ledet 8915 5.53% 13836 6.24% 55.20% 8
Elise Testone 8035 4.99% 9792 4.41% 21.87% 9
Shannon Magrane 7961 4.94% 9604 4.33% 20.64% 10
Erika Van Pelt 7187 4.46% 9183 4.14% 27.77% 12
157,250 221,899 41.11%
for Twitter... two out of the bottom 3... and if we remove EVP's 20k, we still get 2 out of the bottom 3, but we wouldn't even get Shannon right in that case...
Twitter % Twitter % % Rank
"votes" of "votes" of increase last
Contestant 3/8 Total 3/15 Total in "votes" week
Hee Jun Han 53535 18.38% 73284 17.92% 36.89% 1
Phillip 46921 16.11% 68236 16.69% 45.43% 2
Colton Dixon 44699 15.35% 63079 15.43% 41.12% 3
Jessica Sanchez 28737 9.87% 46883 11.47% 63.15% 5
Erika Van Pelt 32163 11.05% 35732 8.74% 11.10% 4
DeAndre 16994 5.84% 24567 6.01% 44.56% 7
Skylar Laine 17171 5.90% 24377 5.96% 41.97% 6
Hollie Cavanagh 14511 4.98% 21787 5.33% 50.14% 8
Shannon Magrane 13871 4.76% 18062 4.42% 30.21% 9
Elise Testone 8325 2.86% 16794 4.11% 101.73% 12
Joshua Ledet 9817 3.37% 16093 3.94% 63.93% 11
286,744 408,894 42.60%
for actual DI votes... 2 out of the bottom 3 AND the correct person going home... hmmmmmmmm
DI % DI % % Rank
"votes" of "votes" of increase last
Contestant 3/8 Total 3/15 Total in "votes" week
Jessica Sanchez 4203 12.51% 5284 14.14% 25.72% 2
Colton Dixon 4200 12.51% 4545 12.16% 8.21% 3
Phillip 3995 11.90% 4059 10.86% 1.60% 4
Hollie Cavanagh 3748 11.16% 4037 10.80% 7.71% 5
Erika Van Pelt 5144 15.32% 3765 10.08% -26.81% 1
DeAndre 1466 4.37% 3460 9.26% 136.02% 10
Hee Jun Han 1362 4.06% 3424 9.16% 151.40% 11
Skylar Laine 2587 7.70% 2503 6.70% -3.25% 6
Joshua Ledet 2343 6.98% 2448 6.55% 4.48% 7
Elise Testone 1709 5.09% 2107 5.64% 23.29% 8
Shannon Magrane 1524 4.54% 1733 4.64% 13.71% 9
32,281 37,365 15.75%
overall... 2 out of the bottom 3, and the correct person going home... even with EVP's twitter numbers adjusted, she doesn't make bottom 3 here
Rank
Average Average Last
Contestant 3/8 3/15 Change Week
Jessica Sanchez 12.11% 15.03% 2.91% 3
Colton Dixon 14.87% 14.61% -0.26% 1
Hee Jun Han 11.79% 12.97% 1.18% 4
Phillip 13.17% 12.72% -0.46% 2
DeAndre 6.13% 7.88% 1.75% 8
Erika Van Pelt 10.27% 7.65% -2.62% 5
Hollie Cavanagh 7.50% 7.55% 0.05% 6
Skylar Laine 7.19% 6.84% -0.35% 7
Joshua Ledet 5.29% 5.57% 0.28% 9
Elise Testone 4.31% 4.72% 0.41% 11
Shannon Magrane 4.75% 4.46% -0.29% 10
the prediction was... bye bye Shannon... and we got THAT right... |
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UVSinger
USA
9309 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 1:04:37 PM
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I don't know how many Twitter votes exactly were fake for Erika, there is speculation it was an "even" 20,000 -- which if they were paid for, an even/rounded number makes sense -- but it she was truly "hacked" it could be 21,000something to 24,0000something, according to the person who discovered the discrepancy. So we'll never know.
Erika was in the bottom for two weeks in a row and was a wildcard.
I'm not just picking on the girl, lol. Logic would have it that something is kinky somewhere in the numbers.
It's cool to see that these numbers are close and that Dial Idol is almost "accurate" for lack of a better word.
Maybe you can include in What Not To Sing's numbers, too?? http://www.whatnottosing.com/
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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 1:10:15 PM
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I thought about including the fair vote thing that Gman mentioned but I didn't quite know how to assign a scale to their results...
I just went to the whatnot site and didn't see a poll... do they have one, or did I just not go deep enough? |
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Roimeister
14138 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2012 : 1:25:05 PM
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| duh.. all I had to do was look... I see it now... yea.. they weren't accurate at ALL this past week... they had Shannon bottom 3, but HeeJun and DeAndre were lower... which.. sort of matches the DI Experts poll... hmmmmm |
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